Geopolitical Shocks, Fed Confusion, and the Summer Setup for Gold - Craig Hemke on Market Drivers
Why oil crashed after U.S.-Iran strikes, and what it means for the dollar, gold, silver, and miners.
This week’s KE Report with Craig Hemke dives into one of the strangest trading environments in years. A missile strike in the Middle East should have sent oil soaring - but instead it’s crashing. Meanwhile, the Fed looks more divided than ever, the U.S. dollar is teetering, and precious metals may be setting up for a powerful summer rally.
• Oil tanks after missile strikes - what’s going on?
Despite U.S. missile launches into Iran and Iran’s retaliatory strike on a U.S. base, oil plummeted from $77 to $69.
“It’s like the market decided this is another face-saving tit-for-tat and that nothing further will escalate.”
Safe haven trades are fading fast, but don’t assume the risks are off the table just yet.
• The U.S. dollar is at a tipping point - and gold is watching closely
Gold’s April high of $3,500 lined up with a dollar bottom near 98. That support is being tested again.
“If the DXY breaks to 96, that could launch gold back to $3,500–$3,550 and fuel a silver surge too.”
A weak dollar would be the tailwind needed to continue the precious metals summer rally.
• Mining stocks: Q2 earnings could surprise
Many juniors have seen a pause, but quality producers like Newmont are up nearly 50% YTD.
“We’re about to get a monthly and quarterly close that could make the silver chart look very bullish.”
Expect momentum to pick back up ahead of earnings as investors price in strong Q2 margins from higher average metal prices.
• Want to beat the ETFs? Follow the money margins
Craig emphasizes that all-in sustaining costs (AISC) and input costs are the key.
“If your costs have risen as much as the metal price, your margin hasn’t improved - and your stock won’t either.”
Start with companies with the lowest cost structures. That’s where the strongest equity returns have come from in the past 6–12 months.
👉 Listen to the full interview to hear Craig’s take on Powell’s upcoming testimony, what’s next for the dollar, and how to spot the mining stocks set to outperform.
🎧 Listen to the full interview here:
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