Market Shakeouts, Gold Volatility, and the Broken Sentiment in Miners – Craig Hemke on Q1 Surprises and Recent Sector Setbacks
Will strong earnings entice investors to gold stocks—and what comes next.
In this episode, Craig Hemke, founder of TF Metals Report, unpacks last week’s sharp market moves and the frustrating performance of precious metals amid broader market volatility. With Q1 shaping up as one of the best quarters ever for miners, why aren’t generalist investors flooding in? Craig offers context, caution, and a few critical cues for those navigating this complex sector.
Key insights from Craig Hemke
Precious metals are still hostage to broader market selloffs
“You’ve got to raise cash, and you might do so by selling your liquid winners - like gold.”
Despite gold being up over 20% in Q1, it sold off sharply last week as hedge funds raised liquidity. These moves mirror previous shakeouts post-election and tariff announcements.
➤ Investor takeaway: Be prepared for gold to move with - not against - macro stress in the short term.Record miner margins aren’t driving stock prices - yet
“Q1 was probably the best quarter ever for this sector, but now the rug's been pulled out again.”
Even with gold prices over $3,000 and exceptional profitability, GDX and GDXJ have failed to break and hold above 2020 levels.
➤ Investor takeaway: Sentiment remains broken, and generalists haven’t fully returned.Paper trading dominates U.S. sessions while Asia shows physical demand strength
Craig points out a “30-year trend”: strength in Asia, weakness in New York.
“Silver rallied 10% in 45 minutes after Chinese markets opened.”
➤ Investor takeaway: Watch for continued divergence between physical and paper markets across time zones.COT report reveals large speculators are exiting fast
“Open interest fell 18,000 contracts in a day - this is liquidation.”
Net long positions among hedge funds in gold are near multi-year lows, indicating a short-term clearing out.
➤ Investor takeaway: Reduced positioning may set the stage for the next upside move.Stock picking over sector exposure in this “ignored” space
With capital return lacking and big miners holding cash, M&A may pick up - but only in targeted areas.
➤ Investor takeaway: Time to go back to bottoms-up stock picking.
👉 Click to listen to the full interview and hear Craig’s outlook for the weeks ahead.
📢 Enjoy the content? Subscribe for daily insights, and don’t forget to leave a review! Follow us on YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and X for all the latest interviews and updates!
📬 Get Daily Interview Summaries + Weekly Company Recaps Straight to Your Inbox
Stay ahead of the markets with concise, insightful breakdowns of our daily interviews and in-depth weekly recaps of company updates from the resource sector. Whether you’re a retail investor or market watcher, our free Substack keeps you informed.