Metals Momentum, Dollar Breakdown, and What Tariffs Could Trigger Next – Craig Hemke on Gold, Silver, and the Macro Setup
Tariff uncertainty, dollar weakness, and institutional gold interest - Craig Hemke dives into the setup for the second half of 2025.
With tariffs back on the table, a plunging U.S. dollar, and commodities flashing breakout signals, Craig Hemke of TF Metals Report returns to discuss why the second half of 2025 could be pivotal for gold, silver, and broader resource markets. Are we about to see another leg higher - or will short-term volatility cloud the trend?
Key Insights from Craig Hemke
• Tariffs Have Been Net-Bearish for Metals in the Short Term - Will History Repeat?
Hemke recalls that previous tariff announcements have triggered sharp selloffs in gold and silver, despite initial optimism.
“Silver fell $8 in 48 hours the last time... and we’ve only just recovered.”
Investor takeaway: Expect volatility on tariff news - but use sharp dips as opportunities in a longer-term uptrend.
• Gold’s Bullish Setup Remains Intact, Even in a Sideways Market
Quarterly charts are drawing institutional attention after a record Q2 close in gold. Hemke notes the resilience of the trend - even without constant all-time highs.
“If we go sideways for six months at $3,300… that’s still a tremendous year.”
Investor takeaway: Don’t underestimate the power of time-based consolidations in strong uptrends.
• Silver Breakout Signals Momentum - and Could Be the Next Big Catch-Up Trade
Silver’s decisive move above $35 after three prior rejections is a major technical milestone. With copper and platinum also rallying, silver may benefit from both monetary and industrial tailwinds.
“That quarterly close - we’ll look back and say it was important.”
Investor takeaway: Silver’s dual role as commodity and currency makes it uniquely positioned for this macro setup.
• Weak Dollar + Growing Money Supply = Tailwind for Commodities
A 12–13% drop in the DXY and a 4.5% jump in M2 money supply in May alone is fueling reflation trade chatter.
“We could be entering a crack-up boom... this money has to go somewhere.”
Investor takeaway: Keep watching the dollar. As long as DXY trends lower, commodities and metals remain well-supported.
• Institutional Models May Finally Start Pricing in $3,400–$4,000 Gold
Hemke says analysts are still basing forecasts on old assumptions. But sideways strength could reset expectations - and spark broader equity re-ratings.
“If banks start forecasting $4,000 gold, that’s what gets reflected in equity reports.”
Investor takeaway: Watch for a lagging but powerful shift in analyst sentiment and fund flows into gold stocks.
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