Resource Investing Post-PDAC: Where the Smart Money is Moving with Brian Leni and Dave Erfle
As the 2026 PDAC convention wraps up, we dive into the selective strategies needed to navigate a volatile but bullish resource sector.
The 2026 PDAC convention in Toronto served as a wake-up call for the mining industry. While attendance reached record highs, the market’s behavior has shifted from the broad “rising tide” of previous years to a much more selective, volatile environment. This week, we sit down with Brian Leni (Junior Stock Review) and Dave Erfle (Junior Miner Junky) to discuss why the “smart money” is moving away from lifestyle juniors and toward high-conviction developers in gold, silver, and copper.
Key Insights & Intriguing Points
The Selectivity Mandate in a Volatile Market
Guest Insight: Brian Leni emphasizes that investors can no longer “throw a dart” at the sector; success now requires identifying management teams that know how to raise capital without destroying share structure.
Notable Quote: “If people are getting scared of this kind of volatility, then you don’t have much conviction in the stuff that you’re invested in.” - Brian Leni
Market Trend: A shift toward “Bottom-Up” investing, where company fundamentals and asset quality trump broad sector excitement.
Actionable Takeaway: Audit your portfolio for “lifestyle juniors” that lack a path to production or a major catalyst, as these are most vulnerable to the current volatility.
Deciphering the “PDAC Curse” and Market Timing
Guest Insight: Dave Erfle analyzes the mid-week “down-draft” where major mining indices dropped 7–10% despite high metal prices, attributed to a combination of over-leveraged margin calls and the typical post-conference news lull.
Notable Quote: “When the tide goes out, we’re going to find out who’s swimming naked... the companies getting hit are those with marginal projects.” - Dave Erfle
Data Point: Gold’s strong support at the 18-week moving average remains the critical technical level for the current bull run.
Actionable Takeaway: Use the “PDAC Curse” price dips as entry points for high-quality developers (like those in the $GDU index) that are currently trading at a discount to their NAV.
The Copper Renaissance and Jurisdiction Shifts
Guest Insight: Both guests see copper entering a “step change” phase. While Mexico remains a core silver story, geopolitical concerns are pushing smart money toward safer jurisdictions like British Columbia and Arizona.
Market Trend: Consolidation is accelerating, evidenced by Hudbay Mining’s recent acquisition activity in Arizona.
Notable Quote: “Copper is on that precipice of having a big step change... and exploration is still mispriced in a lot of ways.” - Brian Leni
Actionable Takeaway: Look for copper developers located near existing infrastructure or major producers, as M&A remains the primary exit strategy for these assets.
Listen to the full Weekend Show here.
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