Silver Breakout, Miner Leverage & the 2026 Setup - with Craig Hemke
Why Silver’s Relentless Surge Is More Than a Spike - And What It Means for Miners, Markets, and 2026
Silver is screaming toward $60/oz, capping an explosive November and an even hotter start to December. In this interview, Craig Hemke (TF Metals Report) breaks down why this time is different, what’s driving the metal’s historic strength, and why miners may be on the brink of their biggest move yet.
Key Insights From the Conversation
• Silver’s behavior mirrors gold’s 2023–24 breakout - and that implies months of upside
Hemke argues silver’s pattern isn’t like the blow-off spikes of 1980 or 2011, but instead mirrors gold’s grinding breakout from late 2023 to March 2024, which doubled over the following 18 months.
Quote: “If it follows Big Brother Gold… why wouldn’t it double in 18 months?”
Trend/Data: Silver up 15%+ in November, now decisively above the $50s without retreating.
Takeaway: Investors should consider that silver may just be in the early phase of a sustained structural breakout.
• Miners are massively lagging - and that may be the biggest opportunity in the sector
Despite huge Q4 metal-price gains (avg. gold ~$4,100, silver >$50), GDX is still below October highs, and SIL trades at only 1.5–1.6x its ratio to silver - far below prior cycles.
Quote: “There’s a big move coming in the shares… a matter of days or weeks at the most.”
Trend/Data: GDX fell 20% during October’s correction even as metals stayed strong.
Takeaway: Margin expansion suggests the “worst” producers could have the biggest % upside if prices hold.
• A quiet but powerful shift: big money positioning for 2026
Hemke sees the extreme strength in metals as “front running what’s coming in 2026” - central bank demand, recession risk, and political change.
Quote: “This is almost like front running what’s coming in 2026… exceptionally bullish.”
Trend/Data: Few historical years show 25% gold gains; 2024’s ~60% surge is unprecedented.
Takeaway: The macro winds for hard assets are only beginning to blow.
• A potential new Fed regime could unleash sharply negative real rates
Hemke notes reports that Trump already has his preferred Fed chair picked, likely Kevin Hassett, which could mean aggressive rate cuts in 2025.
Quote: “I can’t even describe how bullish that is for precious metals.”
Trend/Data: Potential move to 1–2% Fed Funds, paired with yield-curve management.
Takeaway: If policy shifts this way, metals could enter a multi-year runaway phase.
• Hard assets as a whole are breaking out - signaling a deeper shift
In November, gold, silver, copper, GDX, COPX all hit all-time monthly highs.
Quote: “All these hard assets are going to be the place to be.”
Trend/Data: U.S. deficit for October alone was $287B, up 10% YoY.
Takeaway: Persistent fiscal strain + currency dilution = long-term hard-asset bull cycle.
Listen to the full interview here.
If you enjoy these discussions, please subscribe, follow, and leave a review. It helps more investors discover the show and supports independent market commentary.
YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and X