Summer Lull, Fourth-Quarter Setup: Commodities Outlook with Darrell Fletcher
Commodities are quiet now, but big moves may be coming into year-end.
Markets may feel slow, but according to Darrell Fletcher, Managing Director of Commodities at Bannockburn Capital Markets, this “summer blues” period could be setting the stage for an active and volatile fourth quarter across energy, base metals, and gold.
Key Insights from the Interview
Summer doldrums won’t last long
Commodity indexes have drifted (Bloomberg Commodity Index down ~2% in August), with oil and natural gas dragging.
Fletcher expects a “very interesting end of the year” as traders return and macro risks resurface.
Copper stabilizing after July fireworks
Copper has settled near $4.50/lb, with Comex up 11% YTD and LME up 12%.
“The contango on the curve is positive for copper… fundamentals look supportive going forward.”
Gold consolidation may be bullish
Gold has been stuck in sideways action since May, but Darrell sees that as strength.
“The longer it stays at this new level without correcting, the more likely we see another leg up.”
Macro risks (Fed rate cuts, tariffs, geopolitics) remain underpriced, potentially driving a breakout.
Oil stuck, natural gas flushed
Oil is rangebound, struggling to hold $60–$65, with managed money longs at lows not seen since 2008.
Natural gas has corrected sharply (-26% YTD front month), but Darrell says risks now look more balanced heading into winter strips.
Commodities finding more space in portfolios
Fletcher notes evidence of catch-up in equities like Barrick (+22% in the past month) and COPX.
Suggests broader portfolio inclusion of commodities: “It should have happened a long time ago, but it looks like it’s finally catching up.”
👉 Listen to the full interview here for Darrell’s trading-desk perspective on what’s next for commodities.
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