Volatility Compressing: Brien Lundin on the Metals Reset + Josef Schachter’s 2026 Energy Setup
Two veteran newsletter editors map out where the next big moves, and best entry points, could emerge across metals and energy in 2026.
Gold and silver may be digesting a sharp correction, but both guests argue the bigger bull-market backdrop is intact - setting up a very “stock-picker” tape in mining. Meanwhile, energy remains out of favor, yet Josef Schachter lays out a tightening supply/demand case (and a clear playbook for scaling in before the next macro-driven run).
The most intriguing takeaways
Metals: the correction hurt… but volatility is shrinking
Key insight: Brien Lundin says the pain was real (gold off roughly $1,000, silver off about $50), but what matters now is compression - the kind that often precedes the next leg higher.
Notable quote: “The Bollinger Bands… are pinching again.”
Market data: Gold ~$5,000 and silver in the $70s after silver fell from ~$120.
Actionable takeaway: Treat the sideways period as a shopping window: scale into quality names while the market is bored, not after the breakout.
Mining stocks vs. metal prices: why the “disconnect” is the opportunity
Key insight: Lundin highlights the odd setup: strong underlying metal prices, yet plenty of quality explorers/developers down 30–50% in weeks - creating genuine “bottom-fishing” setups.
Notable quote: “These are the periods… where you have a chance to go in and pick up some buys.”
Market trend: “Everybody is drilling,” and the market is selectively rewarding strong results - meaning catalysts are stacked for months.
Actionable takeaway: Build a “drill-season docket”: own a few high-conviction names into assays, but keep cash to add on volatility.
Lundin’s drill-season radar: funded programs + asymmetric targets
Key insight: He’s focused on companies that are cashed up and have targets the market hasn’t fully priced in yet (the “discovery addiction” trade).
Notable quote: “I’m like a kid in a candy store right now.”
Names/themes mentioned: K2 Gold (near-term drilling), Prince Silver (resource pathway), Tiger Gold (resource + upside), Torr Metals (BC copper-gold porphyry hunting), plus a “to-be-revealed” discovery idea.
Actionable takeaway: Favor teams with money + multiple shots on goal; those are the ones that can keep momentum through a choppy tape.
Developers still matter: Banyan as the “risk/reward poster child”
Key insight: Lundin argues the best developers offer downside protection (real ounces) with upside torque (better grade, starter pits, M&A optionality).
Notable quote: “It’s… a wonderful mix of risk versus reward… your downside is fairly well protected.”
Market data point: He frames Banyan around $/oz in the ground today vs. potential multiple expansion in an eventual M&A market.
Actionable takeaway: If you’re trimming explorers after big runs, rotate part of that capital into developers with clear 2026 milestones.
Energy: Schachter’s 2026 case is built on constraints, not hype
Key insight: He thinks the market is overconfident about OPEC/OPEC+ spare capacity and underestimating depletion + underinvestment.
Notable quote: “The assumption… increasing production, I think is naive.”
Market data: OPEC reported down ~135k bpd to ~28.45 mbpd; OPEC+ down ~439k bpd to ~42.4 mbpd (with Kazakhstan disruptions highlighted). Inventory framing: ~90 days now; sub-85 is “very bullish”; 79 was an extreme tightness level in prior spikes.
Actionable takeaway: Don’t just buy “energy” broadly - pre-pick balance-sheet winners, then scale in when Schachter’s indicators align (he flags a typical March–April bottoming window).
Listen to the full interview here
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